盐城市水资源承载状态预警研究

在分析水资源承载状态预警概念的基础上,引入"三类六级"预警思想,采用可变模糊法和层次分析法的思想,构建盐城市水资源承载状态综合预警指标体系,评价盐城市2015年、2020年和2030年的水资源承载状态,并结合各年份承载状态变化趋势,对未来年份进行预警。结果表明:盐城市2015年水资源处于临界超载的状态,但随着"关于做好建立全国水资源承载能力监测预警机制工作的通知"等一系列措施的实施,2020年、2030年承载状态将逐步好转,到2030年将处于可载的状态。     

FIPIA with information entropy: A new hybrid method to assess airline service quality

This study proposes “FIPIA with information entropy” as a new, hybrid method to assess airline service quality by identifying the most important priorities for airline passengers and producing recommendations to airline management for optimal resource allocation to improve service quality and customer satisfaction. The proposed method is an improvement over IPA, IPIA and FIPA methods, through the introduction of information entropy and fuzzy logic to the analysis of importance, performance and impact dimensions of airline service quality to improve interpretability and actionability of analysis results. This study also offers airline managers a list of what they should improve in resource allocation in order to increase service quality considering customer satisfaction and create value by managing the relational capital more effectively. The new hybrid method was field-tested by administering a 26-item questionnaire to passengers of a major airline operator, analyzing the responses using the Importance-Performance-Impact Analysis (IPIA) method, fuzzy logic and information entropy. The analysis revealed four main dimensions of airline service quality, namely reliability, assurance, tangibles, empathy and responsiveness with 17 constituent attributes. The case study revealed that (1) resource allocation was adequate only on four attributes; (2) seven service quality attributes were identified as needing further management focus on resource allocation; (3) six service quality attributes received more resources than necessary which should be shifted to other attributes; (4) dimensions of reliability and tangibles needed more focus than others. The proposed hybrid method of FIPIA with information entropy can be employed for any industry where service quality depends on multiple attributes.     

基于模糊综合评判的在役施工升降机安全事故分析

施工升降机是建筑工地常用的建筑起重机械。由于施工现场环境恶劣,人货混用普遍,导致升降机安全问题频发。本文分析了近年来升降机安全事故的主要类型及发生原因,并结合模糊综合评判法,对在役升降机的安全事故的原因进行了模糊评判。     

基于模糊的高层建筑施工安全评价研究

在建筑业高速发展的同时,高层建筑也迅速崛起。然而对于高危行业的建筑业,整个生命周期过程中都存在着很多的风险。因为在高层的施工中存在作业面较高,所用的机械设备和安全设施更多,作业周期更长等未知情况。文章中经研究分析确定了影响高层建筑施工安全的重要因素,通过对因素的分析划分构造指标体系,再利用层次分析法对各指标进行权重的确定,最后利用模糊数学原理对它进行评价。结合施工企业实例,利用综合评价模型得出了影响该企业安全施工的重要因素,提供了改进的方向和建议。     

基于可变模糊方法的乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价的集对分析

为解决乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价问题,构建了包含粮食安全受威胁程度、收益分配不公平程度、土地利用结构失衡程度、乡村生态破坏程度以及乡村特色消失程度的乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价指标体系,提出乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价的集对分析—可变模糊模型与方法。首先,基于集对模糊联系度构造可变模糊集理论的相对差异度,进而建立集对分析—可变模糊综合评价模型;然后,结合风险分级特征值运用二元语义方法确定乡村土地旅游化流转风险级别;最后,以泉州市乡村旅游目的地为例进行了实例计算。研究结果表明,所建立的集对分析—可变模糊评价模型与方法不但能够定量辨别乡村旅游地土地旅游化流转的风险等级,而且能够区分同一风险等级下的不同风险大小。     

Circular economy and the policy: A framework for improving the corporate environmental management in supply chains

The transition to the circular economy (CE) creates value through the closed-loop systems, reverse logistics, product life cycle management, and clean production in terms of corporate environmental management. During this transition process, the organization faces many barriers such as financial, organizational, technology-based, social, policy-related, market-based, and logistics-based barriers. The objectives of this study are to propose a framework highlighting policy-related barriers for a supply chain in the transition to CE and finally discuss potential implications on enhancing corporate environmental performance of a business. Further, this study evaluates the causal relationships between the policy-related barriers using fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The application was conducted in an apparel firm in Turkey. From findings, lack of legislation for efficient CE (C4), lack of mandatory requirements and responsibilities for manufacturers/suppliers for the CE (C17), and lack of government support for environmentally friendly policies (C2) are revealed as the most important barriers, respectively. It is found that lack of attitude and awareness about CE in government institutions (C19) is the most influencing factor, whereas lack of effective recycling policies to achieve quality in waste management (C8) is the most influenced factor. The recommendations were developed for enhancing the corporate environmental performance of businesses through incentives and unique rewards, improving communication among stakeholders, the government's perception of CE and current linear economy, cooperation with nongovernmental organization (NGOs) and civil actions, the vision of government towards circular principles, the circular public procurement, the local governments in circular policymaking, and awareness of bureaucracy and government officials.     

Using clustering ensemble to identify banking business models

The business models of banks are often seen as the result of a variety of simultaneously determined managerial choices, such as those regarding the types of activities, funding sources, level of diversification, and size. Moreover, owing to the fuzziness of data and the possibility that some banks may combine features of different business models, the use of hard clustering methods has often led to poorly identified business models. In this paper we propose a framework to deal with these challenges based on an ensemble of three unsupervised clustering methods to identify banking business models: fuzzy c‐means (which allows us to handle fuzzy clustering), self‐organizing maps (which yield intuitive visual representations of the clusters), and partitioning around medoids (which circumvents the presence of data outliers). We set up our analysis in the context of the European banking sector, which has seen its regulators increasingly focused on examining the business models of supervised entities in the aftermath of the twin financial crises. In our empirical application, we find evidence of four distinct banking business models and further distinguish between banks with a clearly defined business model (core banks) and others (non‐core banks), as well as banks with a stable business model over time (persistent banks) and others (non‐persistent banks). Our proposed framework performs well under several robustness checks related with the sample, clustering methods, and variables used.     

Assessing Systemic Importance With a Fuzzy Logic Inference System

Three metrics are designed to assess Colombian financial institutions' size, connectedness and non-substitutability as the main drivers of systemic importance: (i) centrality as net borrower in the money market network; (ii) centrality as payments originator in the large-value payment system network; and (iii) asset value of core financial services. An aggregated systemic importance index is calculated based on expert knowledge by using a fuzzy logic inference system. We use principal component analysis to calculate a benchmark index for comparison purposes. Overall similarities between both indexes put forward that expert knowledge aggregation is consistent with that based on a purely quantitative standard approach. Specific non-negligible differences concur with the nonlinear features of an approach whose intention is to replicate human reasoning. Both indexes are complementary and provide a comprehensive relative assessment of each financial institution's systemic importance in the Colombian case, in which the choice of metrics pursues the macroprudential perspective of financial stability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Credibilistic risk aversion

In the probabilistic risk aversion approach, risks are presumed as random variables with known probability distributions. However, in some practical cases, for example, due to the absence of historical data, the inherent uncertain characteristic of risks or different subject judgements from the decision-makers, risks may be hard or not appropriate to be estimated with probability distributions. Therefore, the traditional probabilistic risk aversion theory is ineffective. Thus, in order to deal with these cases, we suggest measuring these kinds of risks as fuzzy variables, and accordingly to present an alternative risk aversion approach by employing credibility theory. In the present paper, first, the definition of credibilistic risk premium proposed by Georgescu and Kinnunen [Fuzzy Inf. Eng., 2013, 5, 399–416] is revised by taking the initial wealth into consideration, and then a general method to compute the credibilistic risk premium is provided. Secondly, regarding the risks represented with the commonly used LR fuzzy intervals, a simple calculation formula of the local credibilistic risk premium is put forward. Finally, in a global sense, several equivalent propositions for comparative risk aversion under the credibility measurement are provided. Illustrated examples are presented to show the applicability of the theoretical findings.     

A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm for analyzing electronic word-of-mouth

This study evaluates tourism experiences shared through electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) across four Chinese attractions. The objective is to develop a framework for evaluating eWOM by constructing an indicator system and implementing an analytic hierarchy process with the use of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm. This framework is achieved by mapping more than 6000 websites related to Chinese tourism attractions and filtering over 200,000 useful reviews to measure service performance. Results indicate that ecological–biological attractions failed to make tourists feel “very satisfied” in various aspects, such as overall evaluation, infrastructure, traffic, natural environment, and social environment. Overall, the study contributes by presenting a framework that can be adopted by tourism researchers and industry practitioners to understand tourist preferences and evaluate service performance to improve service quality.